The share of securitized commercial real estate loans that were past due at least one month was lower in July. Lodging loans saw the biggest improvement. But the overall outlook is dim given the large number of mortgages expected to mature soon.
A 4-basis-point decline from June in 30-day delinquency on loans included in commercial mortgage-backed securities left the July rate at 8.449 percent.
But the rate of late payments on CMBS loans deteriorated from July 2011, when delinquency was 8.432 percent.
The figures were based on $710.82 billion in CRE issuances rated by Morningstar Credit Ratings LLC as of last month.
Excluding agency deals, the delinquency rate was 10.1 percent, about the same as 10.08 percent in June.
On a dollar basis, $60.06 billion in CMBS loans were delinquent as of July 31, a little less than the $60.49 billion in past-due loans a month earlier and the $62.15 billion in delinquent loans a year earlier.
Morningstar noted that a large number of current loans might ultimately default since they might not be able to secure adequate take-out financing when their balloon payments come due.
“A denial by special servicers of borrower requests for loan extensions, modifications or debt restructuring, or a decision by borrowers to surrender the collateral, is still a legitimate concern throughout 2012,” the report stated. “Based upon this concern and despite the ongoing liquidation activity experienced over the trailing 12-months, the delinquent unpaid balance for CMBS still has the potential to reach 9 percent as we enter 2013.”
The best-performing category in July was hotel CMBS, which saw delinquency fall to 11.3 percent from June’s rate of 11.7 percent.
Also lower was multifamily delinquency, which fell to 6.6 percent from 6.8 percent, and the retail property loan delinquency rate, which improved to 7.6 percent from 7.7 percent.
At 6.5 percent, there was no change from June in the rate of late payments on healthcare property mortgages.
Past-due payments on securitized office property loans deteriorated to 10.3 percent from 10.2 percent, and the rate on industrial CMBS loans climbed to 10.7 percent from 10.6 percent.
