The outlook for this year’s refinance business just keeps getting better and better. The quarterly projection for purchase-money production, however, has been trimmed.
Residential lenders are expected to originate $507 billion in U.S. mortgages during the fourth quarter. Overall originations are then expected to fall to $431 billion in the first quarter of next year and keep falling each quarter for the remainder of 2013.
Last month, the outlook was for business to decline from $452 billion this quarter to $431 billion.
The projection was made in the November MBA Mortgage Finance Forecast from the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Refinance volume is forecasted to reach $388 billion during the final three months of 2012 then fall to $306 billion in the first three months of next year. The prior forecast was for refinances to fall from $329 billion to $306 billion.
Refinance share is expected to go from 77 percent in the fourth quarter to 71 percent in the first quarter and continue declining each remaining quarter of 2013.
The volume of originations for home purchases is expected to be $119 billion this quarter and $125 billion next quarter. MBA cut its fourth-quarter forecast from $123 billion project in the October outlook.
The trade group predicted that full-year 2012 mortgage production will come in at $1.746 trillion, more than the $1.691 billion projected last month.
Next year’s forecast is for $1.343 trillion in originations, while $1.053 trillion in mortgage production is expected in 2014.
