Rates, Apps Worsen

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.15%, rising 5 basis points from last week and 51 BPS above the average at this time last year, according to Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey announcement.

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s updated long-term forecast has the 30-year averaging 6.2% this quarter, rising to an average of 6.7% by the end of next year to then plateau at 6.8% by year-end 2007 through mid-2008.

The average for the 15-year edged up 4 BPS to 5.69% this week, Freddie said.

The 10-year Treasury note yielded 4.56% late Thursday with a 97.53 price, worsening from 4.48% and 98.16 a week earlier.

Freddie reported the 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage average was 5.63%, up 4 BPS.

The average 1-year Treasury-indexed ARM was up 2 BPS to 4.91%, according to Freddie’s survey. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve said the 1-year T-bill itself was up 7 BPS in the most recent one-week period to 4.26% Tuesday. ARMs currently comprise 30% of mortgage applications, MBA reported.

MBA predicted the average for the 1-year ARM will be 5.0% this quarter, end next year at 5.4% and rise to 6.8% by year-end 2007 through mid-2008.

Reversing the upturn reported last week, overall mortgage application volume eased 8%, led by a 9% decline in refinance requests and an 8% decline in purchase money loan applications, according to MBAs latest survey of mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts.

Mortgage “applications in October seem to be tapering off a bit, due in large part to slowly rising interest rates,” said Freddie chief economist Frank Nothaft in a written statement. “Obviously, refinancing is going to take the biggest hit as mortgage rates tick up. Refinancing comprised about 40 percent or more of the total volume of mortgage originations over the last 13 months. This share, however, will lessen as mortgage rates continue to rise.

“Going forward, homeowners wanting to use some of the equity in their homes for home improvement or other purposes will make up a larger portion of the refinance business.“

The share of refinance applications was unchanged from a week earlier at 43%, MBA said.

The trade group forecasted that refinances will make up 46% of this year’s anticipated $2.8 trillion volume, but in the next two years sees the share respectively dropping to 35% and 32%.