The origination of commercial real estate loans is forecasted to reach seven consecutive years of growth and surpass any year since the financial crisis.
Commercial mortgage production by all U.S. lenders is expected to reach $379 billion this year. That’s a 6 percent increase over 2013.
Production is expected to climb again next year, reaching $407 billion, and continue rising in 2016 to $433 billion.
The predictions were made in the MBA Commercial/Multifamily Real Estate Finance Forecast released Thursday by the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Annual CRE originations have grown every year since 2009, when $82.3 billion in commercial mortgages were closed.
If MBA’s projections prove accurate, 2016 will mark the seventh consecutive year of increases and be more than any year since 2007 — when the total was $507.7 billion.
CRE loans outstanding are projected to climb from $2.519 trillion last year to $2.593 trillion in 2014.
Next year’s outstandings are predicted to reach $2.642 trillion, while the 2016 outlook is for $2.689 trillion in outstanding commercial mortgages.
MBA said that non-bank mortgage maturities are expected to be $92 billion this year, $158 billion in 2015 and $213 billion the following year.
