The forecasted volume of residential loans to be originated this year and next year has been reduced by $26 billion. Home purchase financing took the biggest hit.
Third-quarter 2018 mortgage production by all U.S. originators is expected to reach $442 billion. U.S.
The outlook includes refinances and loans to finance a home purchase.
Originations are then expected to fall to $404 billion in the final-three months of this year and decline further, to $339 billion, in the first-three months of next year.
Those predictions were made by
Fannie Mae in its Housing Forecast: August 2018.
In last month’s outlook from the secondary lender, originations were expected to go from $446 billion this quarter to $398 billion in the fourth quarter and $340 billion three months later.
Fannie lowered its third-quarter purchase forecast to $337 billion from $342 billion, and the outlook for the following period was reduced to $299 billion from $301 billion.
The current quarter forecast for refinances was left at $104 billion, and the fourth-quarter projection rose to $104 billion
from $97 billion.
For all 12 months of this year, Fannie expects overall originations of $1.669 trillion, down from $1.689 billion in the prior forecast. The 2019 outlook fell to $1.695 trillion from $1.701 trillion.
Washington-based Fannie lowered the 2018 purchase financing forecast to $1.199 trillion from $1.208 trillion, and next year’s purchase outlook was reduced to $1.257 trillion from $1.263 trillion.
This year’s expected refinance production fell to $0.470 trillion from $0.481 trillion, and next year’s forecast was left at $0.438 trillion.
Refinance share is expected to thin from 28 percent in 2018 to 26 percent next year.
