Over the past month, mortgage bankers have grown more optimistic about the volume of refinances that will be originated during the first-three months of this year.
Total single-family production by all U.S. lenders, including purchase financing and refinances, is forecasted to reach $346 billion during the first-quarter 2018.
Mortgage originations are then projected to jump to $450 billion during both the following three months and during the third quarter.
Those predictions were made by the Mortgage Bankers Association in its
latest MBA Mortgage Finance Forecast.
The trade group raised its first-quarter outlook from $339 projected in last month’s forecast.
MBA has the volume of loans to finance home purchases
soaring from $218 billion this quarter to $345 billion in the second quarter.
Refinances are expected to fall from $128 billion to $105 billion. The first-quarter outlook was up from $121 billion a month earlier.
Full-year mortgage originations are expected to climb from $1.616 trillion in 2018 to $1.645 trillion next year and $1.712 trillion in 2019. This year’s outlook improved from $1.609 trillion in the January forecast.
Purchase financing is expected to grow from $1.183 trillion in 2018 to $1.250 trillion a year later and $1.317 trillion in 2020.
Refinances are expected to decline from $0.433 trillion during the current year to $0.395 trillion each of the following two years. The 2018 outlook was up from $0.426 trillion a month earlier.
Refinance share is expected to thin from 27 percent this year to 24 percent in 2019 and 23 percent one year later.
Mortgages outstanding are expected to expand from a downwardly revised $9.77 trillion in 2017 to $9.84 trillion this year, $9.93 trillion in 2019 and $10.01 trillion a year later.
