Mortgage bankers are apparently more optimistic about refinance production in the second quarter, a development that has full-year expectations for overall production higher.
Mortgage lending activity, including purchase financing and refinancing, is expected to total $288 billion during the first three months of this year.
Expected first-quarter residential loan originations decreased from last month, when the forecast for overall business was reported at $294 billion.
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported the projections in its MBA Mortgage Finance Forecast for March.
But economists at the trade group bumped up the second-quarter forecast to $353 billion from $338 billion predicted in February.
There was no change in the third-quarter projection of $318 billion.
MBA cut its current-quarter outlook for purchase financing
to $138 billion from the prior month’s $144 billion but lifted the second-quarter purchase forecast by $5 billion to $208 billion.
The first-quarter refinance projection was left at $150 billion. However, the association increased expected refinance originations for the following three-month period to $145 billion from $135 billion.
Full-year 2015 overall originations are predicted to reach $1.231 trillion, more than than $1.222 trillion expected last month.
Next year’s expected total was unchanged at $1.170 trillion.
Purchase lending for this year is forecasted
to come in at $0.730 trillion, off slightly from $0.731 trillion in the previous outlook. In 2016, purchase financing is pegged at $0.791 trillion, the same as expected last month.
At $0.501 trillion, projected refinance originations for 2015 grew from $0.491 trillion predicted in February.
This contrasts the 2015 refinance outlook from Fannie Mae, which was cut from $0.574 trillion in last month’s forecast from the secondary lender to $0.554 trillion in this month’s outlook.
MBA left its outlook for next year’s refinances at $0.379 trillion.
Refinance share is expected to be 41 percent this year and 32 percent in 2016.
