The overall outlook for this year’s U.S. mortgage originations improved as forecasted refinance production increased by $50 billion.
Total residential originations, including refinances and purchase financing, are expected to amount to $510 billion in the second quarter
National mortgage production is then expected to drop to $420 billion in the third quarter and retreat to $328 billion three months later.
The Mortgage Bankers Association, which made the latest predictions in its
MBA Mortgage Finance Forecast, raised expected second-quarter volume from $480 billion predicted last month and the third quarter from $400 billion.
Purchase financing is expected to go from $275 billion in the current quarter to $290 billion three months later, the same as expected last month.
But the prediction for refinances was lifted, to $235 billion in the second quarter from $205 billion in last month’s outlook, and to $130 billion in the third quarter from $110 billion.
The association projects full-year total originations will fall from $1.608 trillion in the current year to $1.383 trillion in 2017
and to $1.347 trillion the following year. The 2016 forecast was increased from $1.558 trillion last month.
Purchase financing is anticipated to be $0.973 trillion this year, $1.011 trillion in 2017 and $1.046 trillion a year later.
The 2016 refinance forecast climbed to $0.635 trillion from $0.585 trillion predicted last month. Next year’s refinance outlook was left at $0.372 trillion, while the 2018 refinance outlook stayed at $0.301 trillion.
Refinance share will fall from 39 percent this year to 27 percent in 2017 and 22 percent in 2018.
