Mortgage bankers have grown slightly more optimistic about their expectations for refinance originations during the third quarter of this year.
Overall home lending volume, including refinancing and purchase financing, is expected to total $463 billion during the second-quarter 2017.
Loan production is then expected to fall to $440 billion three months later and $348 billion during the final-three months of this year.
The predictions were made by the
Mortgage Bankers Association in its MBA Mortgage Finance Forecast.
The trade group lifted the third-quarter forecast from $424 billion in last month’s outlook.
MBA has the volume of loans to finance a home purchase dipping from $316 million this quarter to $315 billion the following quarter. The third-quarter purchase forecast was nudged up from $312 billion predicted in May.
Refinance production is expected to sink from $147 billion in the second quarter to $125 billion. The third-quarter refinance forecast increased from $112 billion in the last outlook.
During all of 2017, MBA predicts total mortgage originations will be $1.612 trillion then fall to $1.588 trillion next year and bounce up to $1.640 trillion in 2019. The 2017 projection improved from $1.596 trillion in the last report.
Purchase-money production is forecasted to climb from $1.084 trillion this year to $1.178 trillion in 2018 and $1.245 trillion the following year. This year’s purchase outlook inched up from $1.081 trillion.
Refinances, meanwhile, are expected to fall from $0.528 trillion in 2017 to $0.410 trillion a year later and $0.395 trillion in 2019. This year’s outlook increased from $0.515 trillion expected in the prior month’s forecast.
Refinance share is expected to go from a third this year to 26 percent in 2018 and 24 percent in 2019.
MBA has mortgage debt outstanding growing from $10.050 trillion in 2017 to $10.450 trillion a year later and $10.850 trillion in 2019.
