The latest real estate finance forecast has second-quarter originations coming in higher than previously expected, while the second-half 2015 outlook diminished.
From April 1 through June 30, mortgage production from all U.S. lenders is expected to amount to $442 billion.
That would make second-quarter originations the most of any quarter last year, this year and next year.
Volume is then projected to fall to $365 billion in the third quarter and decline further to $331 billion during the final three months of this year.
Fannie Mae made the predictions in its
Housing Forecast: June 2015.
The second-quarter forecast was lifted from last month, when originations were expected to be $418 billion during the period.
But Fannie trimmed the third-quarter outlook from $369 billion, while the fourth-quarter forecast slipped from $333 billion.
The current-quarter outlook for purchase financing jumped to $227 billion from $213 billion, while Fannie left the outlook for third-quarter purchase business at $209 billion.
Refinance production is predicted to be $215 billion in the second quarter compared to $205 billion in the last report. The third-quarter refinance forecast slipped to $156 billion from $160 billion previously expected.
For all of this year, total originations — including purchase financing and refinancing — is expected to total $1.461 trillion, little changed from $1.460 trillion in the previous outlook.
Next year’s expected total was left at $1.179 trillion.
The purchase-money forecast inched up to $0.760 trillion from $0.759 trillion previously projected for 2015, while next year’s purchase forecast was unchanged at $0.799 trillion.
Refinances are predicted to plunge from $0.701 trillion this year to $0.381 trillion in 2016, the same as in the prior-month outlook.
Fannie has refinance share at 48 percent for 2015 and 32 percent for next year.
