Mortgage banking economists have improved their outlook for loan originations during the current quarter. Full-year expectations have risen for three months in a row.
From July 1, 2017, through Oct. 31, home-lending volume is expected to reach $455 billion. In the final quarter of this year, production is projected at just $348 billion.
The trough will occur in the first quarter of next year, when
mortgage originations are expected to come in at only $345 billion.
Third-quarter 2017 expectations improved from last month, when the Mortgage Bankers Association — which made the latest predictions in its MBA Mortgage Finance Forecast for July — previously projected $440 billion.
In fact, MBA has improved its forecast each month since April 2017.
The origination of loans to finance a home purchase are expected to total $320 billion during the current quarter then sink to $241 billion in the fourth quarter. The third-quarter outlook improved from $315 billion in June’s report.
Refinance volume is expected to fall from $135 billion this quarter to $107 billion three months later.
MBA raised the third-quarter number from $125 billion predicted in June.
Full-year overall originations are expected to fall from $1.627 trillion this year to $1.588 trillion in 2018. But the trade group has business in 2019 ascending to $1.640 trillion. The 2017 projection was raised from $1.612 trillion.
Purchase originations are expected to climb from $1.089 trillion this year to $1.178 trillion in 2018 and $1.245 trillion in 2019. MBA previously predicted $1.084 in 2017 purchase-money lending.
Refinance volume will tumble from $0.538 trillion in all of 2017 to $0.410 next year and $0.395 in 2019.
This year’s outlook grew from $0.528 trillion predicted last month.
Refinance share is expected to thin from a third this year to 26 percent next year and just under a fourth in 2019.
One-to-four unit
mortgage debt outstanding is expected to grow from $10.050 trillion this year to $10.450 trillion in 2018 and $10.850 trillion the following year.
