Mortgage bankers have increased their forecast for refinances during the final quarter of this year and the first half of next year.
Including refinancing and purchase financing, home-lending volume is projected to reach $561 billion during the third quarter.
Business is then expected to decline to $417 billion in the fourth quarter and fall further — to $366 billion — three months after that.
The statistics were spelled out in the Mortgage Bankers Association’s
MBA Mortgage Finance Forecast.
The trade group increased its fourth-quarter outlook from $395 billion expected last month and its first-quarter 2017 forecast from $346 billion.
Purchase-money production is expected to drop from $298 billion in the current quarter to $223 billion in the following three-month period, no different than was predicted last month.
While the third-quarter refinance outlook was left at $263 billion, MBA lifted its fourth-quarter projection to $194 billion from $172 billion.
In addition, first-half 2017 refinances are now expected to total $281 billion versus just $250 billion predicted a month earlier.
MBA expects overall full-year 2016 originations to reach $1.838 trillion, more than $1.816 trillion forecasted in August.
Next year’s overall outlook increased to $1.540 trillion from $1.509 trillion, while the 2018 forecast remained at $1.446 trillion.
Purchase financing is expected to climb from $0.981 trillion this year to $1.085 trillion in 2017 and $1.145 trillion the following year — the same as was forecasted in August.
But the 2016 refinance projection grew to $0.857 trillion from $0.835 trillion, and next year’s outlook expanded to $0.455 trillion from $0.424 trillion.
But MBA left the 2018 refinance forecast at $0.301 trillion.
Refinance share is predicted to thin from 47 percent this year to 30 percent in 2017 and 21 percent a year later.
