The nation’s mortgage bankers have grown less optimistic about the volume of refinance originations during the first half of next year.
During the final quarter of this year,
home lending, including purchase financing and refinancing, is expected to reach $470 billion.
Mortgage production is then expected to fall to $365 billion in the first-quarter 2017 then bounce up to $430 billion three months later.
The Mortgage Bankers Association, which made the predictions Wednesday in its
MBA Mortgage Finance Forecast, scaled back from last month’s outlook, when it had volume going from $400 billion in the first-three months of next year to $440 billion in the second quarter.
Purchase-money production is expected to account for $232 billion of current-quarter volume, fall to $220 billion in the first-quarter 2017 then rise to $310 billion the following quarter — the same as was predicted in October.
While the trade group left its fourth-quarter 2016 refinance forecast at $238 billion, the following quarter’s outlook was cut to $145 billion from $180 billion expected a month earlier, and the second-quarter 2017 projection was trimmed to $120 billion from $130 billion.
Full-year overall originations are expected to fall from $1.891 trillion in 2016 to $1.584 trillion the following year then inch up to $1.588 trillion in 2018 and $1.640 trillion in 2019. The 2017 outlook was reduced from $1.629 trillion.
Purchase financing activity is projected to climb from $0.990 trillion this year to $1.100 trillion in 2017, $1.178 trillion in 2018 and $1.245 trillion in 2019.
MBA has refinance volume plunging from $0.901 trillion in 2016 to $0.484 trillion next year, $0.410 trillion the following year and $0.395 trillion in 2019. The 2017 refinance forecast was lowered from $0.529 trillion predicted in October.
Refinance share is forecasted to fall from 48 percent this year to 31 percent next year, 26 percent in 2018 and 24 percent a year later.
