The expected volume of lending to finance home purchases next year has been lowered, as was the estimate for last year’s production.
From Jan. 1 through March 31, total mortgage originations — including purchases and refinances — are projected to reach $351 billion.
Residential loan production
is then expected to climb to $431 billion in the second quarter then retreat to $418 billion three months later.
Fannie Mae, which made the predictions in its
Housing Forecast: February 2017, left the projections mostly unchanged from the previous month’s outlook.
Purchase-money mortgages are expected to make up $191 billion of first-quarter activity and $300 billion of the following three-month period’s total.
Refinance production is expected to fall from $160 billion
this quarter to $131 billion in the second quarter.
Fannie predicts that overall originations will sink from $1.940 trillion in 2016 to $1.565 trillion this year and $1.526 trillion in 2018. The 2017 total was trimmed from $1.568 trillion in the last outlook, while the 2018 outlook was cut from $1.535 trillion.
Purchase financing is expected to go from $1.013 trillion last year to $1.056 trillion this year and $1.146 trillion in 2018. Last month, Fannie had purchase-money lending rising from $1.019 trillion in 2016 to $1.058 trillion in the current year and $1.154 trillion in 2018.
The latest forecast has refinances plunging from $0.927 trillion last year to $0.510 trillion in 2017 and $0.381 trillion next year.
The prior outlook had last year’s refinances at $0.922 trillion.
Refinance share is projected at one-third for this year and one-quarter for 2018.
