WASHINGTON — Four years ago, Julian Castro, then the relatively unknown mayor of San Antonio, Texas, was keynote speaker at the Democratic National Convention.
His career trajectory soon brought him to Washington as secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development — and constant speculation that he was a leading contender for a different role in the upcoming 2016 convention: vice presidential running mate.
But after a year as the only Latino on the veep “short list” for presumed nominee Hillary Clinton, Castro, 41, is no longer such a clear choice.
Other Democrats, notably Rep. Xavier Becerra of California, are getting attention.
And likely GOP nominee Donald Trump has agitated Latinos with his comments on immigration, assuring strong Latino support for Clinton, even without a Latino on the ticket.
And that may be costing Castro.
“He has definitely lost altitude,” said Bill Miller, an Austin political consultant with clients in both parties. “The presidential race has tightened.”
“At first it was ‘Julian, Julian, Julian,'” said Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas). “Now it’s Xavier, too. I’m a Texan, so I’m a little biased. Just the fact that we’ve got two Hispanics that are being talked about is a big plus for the Hispanic community.”
Also getting some mention is Labor Secretary Tom Perez. But will all the buzz translate into a Latino as Clinton’s running mate?
Castro downplays the vice presidential talk since he is constantly asked about it, even telling CNN recently, “That’s not going to happen.”
On a conference call with reporters Wednesday about affordable housing, he declined to talk about his role in the Clinton campaign.
Henry Cisneros, himself a former Democratic mayor of San Antonio and former HUD chief, began touting Castro for vice presidential running mate a year ago. The Latino establishment fell in line, with an endorsement from the Hispanic Chamber of Commerce.
On a campaign stop in San Antonio last October, when Castro endorsed her, Clinton said she would be looking “really hard” at him.
“I think that’s the point: a Latino on the ticket,” said Henry Munoz, the Democratic National Committee finance chairman. “I am always concerned about the Latino community and the lack of representation.” Munoz, who is from San Antonio, is not taking sides in the vice presidential search.
Hispanic voters are projected to grow to 27 million in the 2016 elections, up about 3.5 million from 2012, when 71 percent of them voted for President Barack Obama, according to the Pew Research Center.
Liberals recently took aim at Castro over a HUD program that sold “underwater” mortgages — when the balance due is higher than the value of the property — saying they were being sold to Wall Street power brokers instead of community groups.
Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Arizona), a supporter of presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders, an independent senator from Vermont who’s running for the Democratic nomination, raised the issue in a letter to Castro. But Grijalva told McClatchy that “this was no ‘he shouldn’t be vice president’ campaign.”
Still, there appears to be a division.
Asked about Becerra, who is the chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, Grijalva said, “He’s a good guy.” Asked about Castro, he said, “I don’t know him well enough.”
HUD maintains that the program has built-in protections.
“HUD has received feedback from stakeholders, which has led us to make a number of important changes to the program, including the creation of nonprofit-only pools and delaying foreclosure for a year,” said Cameron French, a department spokesman.
Castro gets a lot of attention in part because has an identical twin, Joaquin, who represents San Antonio in Congress. Also a favorite of Obama, Joaquin Castro just accompanied Obama to Vietnam on the president’s trip to Asia.
“Julian Castro would bring quite a bit to the table as a vice presidential candidate: He’s talented, articulate, youthful and Latino,” said Mark Jones, professor of political science at Rice University in Houston. “At the same time, his political resume is a bit thin for a vice president.”
Castro has been at HUD since 2014 and before that was mayor for five years in a city with a strong city council and city manager structure.
Another drawback is that he is not fully fluent in Spanish the way Becerra is, who is popular in Latino media.
And there is the issue of what he would bring to the ticket — likely not Texas, which is overwhelmingly Republican — leaving the question of how much he can draw Latinos nationwide.
“With Trump antagonizing and repelling Latinos in droves, it would appear that Hillary Clinton doesn’t really need much help in mobilizing and winning the Latino vote in key battleground states like Florida, Colorado, Nevada and Virginia,” said Jones.
Gabriel Sanchez, an associate professor of political science at the University of New Mexico, thinks Castro is still a strong contender.
“Castro remains on the short list, given his credentials and his youth,” Sanchez said. “Through the primary season, it has become clear that Latino millennials will be a vital subgroup of the electorate, and Castro has the potential to be very helpful in engagement of young Latino voters.”
